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| #800550 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 03.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic, could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The 1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the regeneration will not materialize. A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 22.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 22.4N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 22.7N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila |
