Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #800681 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 04.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 Fred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east of the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45 kt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Fred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial motion is now 275/9. The cyclone or its remnants is expected to recurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough to the west during the forecast period. While the track guidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in the speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster ECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits the difference between the faster and slower track guidance mentioned above. It may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain in an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48 hours. This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. The dynamical models suggests that the shear should decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement between them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near Fred. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its remnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM models show little intensification. Based on these forecasts and the statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a considerable amount of uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 22.1N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 22.3N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.6N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 23.2N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 24.1N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 27.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Beven |
