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| #800728 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 04.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 Fred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over the cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation is not as vigorous as it was yesterday. Dvorak T-numbers are gradually decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. The shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so, resulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global models suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3 days. If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is anomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of regeneration. This would likely occur after Fred or its remnants recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt, steered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central Atlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to recurve northeastward. This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which follows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is interesting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of runs keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 22.3N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96H 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila |
