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| #801007 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 05.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear. However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance. Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west- northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the GFS and the ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.4N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
