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| #801285 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 06.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Fred continues to linger as a tropical depression. Visible satellite images indicate that the center of Fred remains well defined, but the outer circulation has become elongated likely due to the interaction with a frontal system to its northwest. Deep convection is disorganized, and consists of two patches to the north and south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Fred is currently battling about 20 kt of north-northwesterly shear and is in an environment of fairly dry mid-level air. The shear is expected to lessen some during the next day or so before it increases again from the west in 48-72 hours, at which time the cyclone will begin to move over slightly lower SSTs. Therefore, a little strengthening is possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes more hostile. The NHC intensity forecast lies on the low side of the guidance, and is similar to the previous one. The depression is moving northward, or 005 degrees, at about 8 kt. A deep-layer trough to the northwest of the system should cause Fred to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed during the next day or two. After that time, the trough is expected to flatten, and that should allow Fred to turn eastward and then southeastward by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. It should be noted that an alternate scenario, provided by the ECMWF model, is that circulation of Fred could open up into a trough when it interacts with the nearby frontal system during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 25.7N 43.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.0N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.8N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 31.4N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 32.8N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 32.9N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
