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| #801604 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 07.Sep.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015 Deep convection associated with Grace has been waning today, and banding features are not evident. In fact, if the convection does not make a comeback soon, the system will be too weak to classify using the Dvorak technique. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, mainly based on the winds from an earlier ASCAT overpass. Westerly shear on Grace is forecast to increase over the next couple of days, but assuming that the convection will make at least a little comeback, the system is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity for a day or two. This is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a much sooner degeneration to a remnant low, compared to the previous advisory. Clearly, Grace could dissipate much sooner than shown here. The storm continues its rapid westward motion, even a little faster than earlier. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should maintain a swift motion toward the west or slightly north of west over the next few days. The official track forecast remains close to the latest dynamical model consensus. This is not quite as fast as the ECMWF, but that model opens the system up into a wave within 48 hours. The 34-kt wind radii have been modified, based on earlier scatterometer data that showed a lack of winds to tropical storm force over the southern semicircle of the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 14.1N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 14.3N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 14.7N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 15.2N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
