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| #8018 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 12.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN PASSING CLOSE TO GRAND CAYMAN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 110 MPH...HAVE BEEN MEASURED ON GRAND CAYMAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 919 MB...27.14 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 919 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
