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| #801816 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 08.Sep.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 A new burst of deep convection has occurred over the southern semicircle but, like the previous one, it lacks any banding features. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Grace could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next day or two. However, it will be moving through an environment of increasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air over the next several days. This should cause weakening, and the system is likely to become a remnant low in 36 hours if not sooner. There is also the possibility of the cyclone opening up into a wave during the forecast period, which is what the GFS and ECMWF models have been depicting in their recent runs. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus IVCN. The initial motion continues westward, or 275/16 kt. No changes are evident in the steering scenario for the next 3 days. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to provide a brisk easterly steering current for Grace or its remnants. The dynamical track guidance has been in very close agreement for the past couple of days. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and is basically and update of the previous one. The center of Grace should pass very near NOAA data buoy 41041 in a couple of hours, which should provide useful data about the tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 14.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 15.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.5N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 16.8N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
