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| #801970 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 09.Sep.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located just to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The vertical shear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is forecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours. Therefore strengthening seems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures near 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance. The depression has been meandering this morning and the current motion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed beginning within 12 hours. After 48 hours, the system should turn to the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. An alternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become absorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 30.7N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 35.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 38.8N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 48.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
