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| #802195 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 10.Sep.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 The cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the convection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center. Visible images also indicate that the system has little organization in the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around a mean center. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some Dvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical depression. Southwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of deep convection near the center of the cyclone. Global models, however, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri to strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours. Henri is still forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days and then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high shear. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous one. Satellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8 kt. The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward tomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical ridge. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an update of the previous prediction. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 32.6N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 34.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 37.8N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 41.4N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 49.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
