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| #803205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 16.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015 The depression continues to be sheared with the low-level center well removed from the deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have decreased tonight, but still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. Most of the global models bring even stronger upper-level westerly winds over the cyclone, and this should result in weakening. The depression could still produce intermittent bursts of convection near the center during the next day or so, but the overall trend is for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low in two days or earlier. The low-level center is difficult to locate on infrared images. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 6 kt, while embedded within light steering currents. Since the depression is becoming a shallow cyclone, it will likely be steered toward the northwest and then west-northwest by the low-level flow around the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is on the southern edge of the guidance envelope, leaning toward BAM shallow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.8N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.6N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 18.8N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 21.0N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 22.0N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
