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| #803237 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 17.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 The depression consists of a circulation of low clouds with a very small patch of deep convection to the north of the center. Based on continuity and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is kept at 25 kt. Given that 20 to 25 kt of shear and dry air are expected to continue in the vicinity of the depression, weakening is forecast, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours or so. Satellite fixes show a motion toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The depression has become a shallow cyclone, and the subtropical high is forecast to rebuild to the north. Consequently, the depression or the remnant low is forecast to turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest. This turn to the left is the solution provided by most of the track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 19.7N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 22.0N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
