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| #803241 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 18.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 A burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -70C has developed near and northeast of the center of Tropical Depression Nine. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 25 kt, and that will be the initial intensity. The depression continues to be in an environment of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air being advected into the system. The dynamical models suggest these conditions should persist for at least 48 hours, and based on this the depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less. The initial motion remains 330/6. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer it or its remnants generally northwestward for the next several days. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, with a little nudge toward the south during the first 48 hours due to the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.6N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.3N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.2N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 19.9N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 20.7N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 22.5N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
