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| #803288 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 19.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of the depression is losing definition and becoming elongated. In addition, the system has been without organized convection since around 0700 UTC. Given the continued influence of strong shear and dry air, the system is expected to become a remnant low within 12 hours or could dissipate as soon as later today if the center continues to lose definition. The initial motion has been slower over the past few hours, and the current estimate is 285/05. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward the west-northwest until the system dissipates completely in the next 24 to 36 hours. The new NHC track is close to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.4N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 18.8N 50.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 19.4N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
