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| #803992 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 29.Sep.2015) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 71.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 71.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 71.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
