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| #804225 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 30.Sep.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 73.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini. The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected Thursday night and Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday, and near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
