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| #804532 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:02 PM 01.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN BATTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.5W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a west-southwestward or westward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of strongest winds of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday. Joaquin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been reported at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 931 mb (27.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba through Friday morning. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Stewart |
