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| #804844 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 02.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 Fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the core of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the central Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which suggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern eyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds were measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt. The eye was over San Salvador Island for several hours where the pressure dropped to near 944 mb. The Director of the Meteorological Service of the Bahamas reported to NHC that there was considerable damage on some islands of the central Bahamas. Joaquin could fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but given that the shear is expected to increase, the NHC forecast calls for very gradual weakening. Joaquin is anticipated to lose tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period. Joaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flow between a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a a weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough swings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The multi-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently the NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the NHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 24.7N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 25.7N 72.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.0N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 37.0N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 46.5N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
