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| #804973 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 03.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 The satellite presentation has improved during the past 12 hours. A distinct eye is clearly observed in conventional imagery, and it is surrounded by very deep convection. A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 and 6.5 T-numbers, and a peak flight-level wind of 128 kt at 700 mb reported by a reconnaissance aircraft yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. The central pressure has dropped to 936 mb in the last reconnaissance fix. Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus, calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters. By the end of the forecast period, Joaquin is expected to have lost tropical characteristics. Reconnaissance and satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at an average speed of 12 kt. The hurricane is currently embedded within the flow between a deep eastward-moving trough over the southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. As the trough over the United States swings eastward, the hurricane will likely turn more to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours. Then, as the trough weakens, the hurricane could slow down while moving west of Bermuda during late Sunday. After that time, Joaquin is expected to become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate eastward toward the northeast Atlantic. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, on top of the multi-model consensus, and in the middle of the guidance envelope. Although the confidence in the track forecast has increased due to the good agreement among models, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger winds closer to Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.8N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
