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| #805126 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 03.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 68.9W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with this motion continuing through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda late Sunday or Sunday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda tonight and continue through Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
