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| #805153 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 AM 04.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WILL DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 68.2W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 68.2 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this morning, with this motion continuing through early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon or early tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 949 mb (28.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda later this morning, and the hurricane is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will affected Bermuda through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
