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| #805236 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 04.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA... ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 67.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 67.1 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later this morning, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is still a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance aircraft was 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
