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| #805270 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 04.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY... ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 66.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda tonight. Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
