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| #805918 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 06.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well- organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt. Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24 and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone. Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is racing toward the east-northeast at about 26 kt. Track guidance is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. However, Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 39.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
