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| #8098 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 13.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. AT 5 AM EDT..0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT MOTION...THE CENTER COULD MISS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND COULD EVEN MOVE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER... ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
