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| #813696 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 AM 09.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Deep convection has increased to the north and east of the depression's center during the past few hours, with Dvorak estimates now T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Based on these data, the cyclone is maintained as a 30-kt depression. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression later this morning and should provide a more definitive assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Warm ocean waters and low vertical shear should support some strengthening of the cyclone during the next day or two before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the western Atlantic by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is very close to a consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and toward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move around the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later today and north-northwest by tonight. While the dynamical models all show this general scenario, the depression is already out of sync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the simpler BAM trajectory models. Therefore, the official forecast has been placed to the west of the various consensus models during the first 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions observed in the dynamical model fields. After 36 hours, the BAM and dynamical models are in much better agreement, and the official forecast is closer to the consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.6N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.7N 75.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 30.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 33.4N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Brennan |
