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| #813770 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 AM 09.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Kate has strengthened a little. The advisory intensity of 40 kt is based on peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt, and SFMR observations of 40-42 kt. Kate is a very small tropical cyclone, with its associated central dense overcast extending no more than about 40 n mi from the center. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Kate is moving northwestward at about 13 kt, steered between a subtropical high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is forecast to occur tonight when the storm is near the northwestern Bahamas. After that time, an acceleration to the northeast is expected when the cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official NHC track forecast is nudged to the right of the previous one at the 36- and 48-h forecast times, to come into better agreement with the consensus aids. Kate is likely to strengthen some more during the next day or so while it remains in a low- to moderate-shear environment and over warm water. The official intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is near the low end of the guidance envelope. All of the models show Kate becoming absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.5N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 26.1N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 31.6N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 34.4N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart |
