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| #813893 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 PM 09.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle. Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had strengthened to about 45 kt. Since the plane departed the storm, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong and the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Kate is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system over the north Atlantic by day 3. Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The updated track is similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.2N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 29.5N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 35.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 38.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown |
