Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #814082 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 10.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Kate has not changed much in structure during the past few hours, with the center still embedded with a small CDO. Dvorak estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity remains 60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be investigating Kate again this evening. A pair of ASCAT A/B passes at 14-15Z were helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind radii. The intensity forecast shows Kate reaching hurricane status in 12 hours, and then remaining a powerful cyclone as it undergoes extratropical transition in 36 to 48 hours while it interacts with an upper-level trough and an east/west oriented low-level baroclinic zone. After transition, the baroclinic forcing weakens, and Kate is expected to weaken to 40-45 kt at 72 hours and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus through transition. The initial motion estimate is 050/26, as Kate continues to accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement showing a turn toward the east-northeast with a forward speed of 30 to 35 kt through 36 hours, followed by a slower northeastward motion as Kate interacts with an upper-level trough. After that time, a gradual acceleration toward the east and then northeast is expected over the north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of and faster than the previous one through 48 hours, based on the initial position and motion, and a faster trend in the guidance. After that time the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The NHC track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through 48 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble mean after that time. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 32.2N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 34.3N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 40.0N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 42.0N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 43.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z 48.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z 58.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan |
