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| #8159 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 ...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 912 MB...26.93 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER... ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
