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| #8193 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER... ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH |
