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| #8195 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0300Z TUE SEP 14 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 61.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 61.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N 62.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 64.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 66.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.3N 67.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N 69.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.7N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
