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| #8196 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 A SHORT TIME AGO...THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE PASSED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE READINGS FROM BOTH THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB A FEW HOURS AGO...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN WAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE CORE INTERACTED WITH LAND TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 140 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER IVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST. IVAN WOBBLED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS JUST BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST... 325/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE HURRICANE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK. THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN WE EMPHASIZE THAT...DUE TO FORECAST ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT. THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IS AT RISK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 22.0N 85.4W 140 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 23.1N 86.2W 140 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 24.8N 87.3W 135 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 88.2W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 83.5W 20 KT...INLAND |
