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| #8234 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 14.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA... INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND 575 MILES... 925 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES. THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 924 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
