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| #8340 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 14.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF IVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 929 MB ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 115-120 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IVAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS OVER A WARM GULF EDDY IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD HELP IVAN TO REGAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE CONFIDENTLY FORECAST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS ALMOST NORTHWARD. IVAN IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GROUPING OF THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS. THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY OR STALL NEAR OR OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.2N 86.6W 120 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 25.3N 87.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 27.2N 88.0W 125 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 29.3N 88.3W 120 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 31.5N 88.0W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 17/1800Z 34.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND |
