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| #8390 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 14.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. TWO DEEP CONVECTIVE AREAS ARE PRESENT WITH THE NORTHERN MOST ONE BEING NEAR THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...NOT UNUSUAL FOR A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A NEW CENTER AS THE RADAR ALSO INDICATES SOME VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTH OF A POSSIBLE CENTER. T NUMBERS ARE UP FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVE 55 KT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THE INITIAL WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07...A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS HOLDING STEADY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. IT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS. SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST JEANNE TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE. A LOT OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH THE SHIPS FORECASTS SAYS IS IMPROVING. I HAVE HELD THE SAME INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE UNTIL WE SEE IF THE SYSTEM CAN GET RE-ORGANIZED. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.2N 64.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.7N 65.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 67.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.6N 68.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 70.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 23.0N 74.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 75.5W 75 KT |
