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| #8448 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:58 AM 15.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004 THE FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MOST OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935 MB...938 MB FROM A DROP AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 132 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WE EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. IVAN IS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STEERING AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. ONCE IVAN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND IVAN COULD STALL OR MOVE ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IVAN COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA. SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE AT ABOUT 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 26.1N 87.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 27.6N 88.0W 120 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 29.6N 88.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 32.0N 87.7W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/0600Z 33.5N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 19/0600Z 35.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/0600Z 35.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND |
