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| #8481 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 15.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 ...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.3 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
