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| #8547 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 15.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD EYEWALL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND A CLEARING OUT OF THE EYE. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933 MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK WINDS AT 7000 FT OF 132 KT. UNDERNEATH THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT. IT APPEARS THAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET INCREASED BUT MAY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IVAN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 355/12. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN ABOUT 9 HOURS. HOWEVER...IVAN HAS A VERY LARGE WINDFIELD AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. THE ECMWF MODEL FINALLY GAVE UP ON A NEW ORLEANS LANDFALL TODAY...RESULTING IN A WELL-CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...PERHAPS 150 MILES OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 28.4N 88.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 30.2N 88.3W 115 KT...ON THE COASTLINE 24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.2N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/0600Z 33.8N 87.2W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/1800Z 35.0N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 19/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
