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| #858231 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 28.May.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 The center of Bonnie has become exposed about 50 n mi to the southeast of a bursting area of deep convection due to strong southerly vertical wind shear. Despite this ragged appearance, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found some believable SFMR winds northwest of the center that support increasing the initial intensity to 40 kt. Little change in intensity is expected before the center moves near or onto the South Carolina coast on Sunday, with weakening to a tropical depression expected in about 36 hours. Shear, dry air, and cool SSTs should result in Bonnie becoming a remnant low by 72 hours, although I wouldn't be surprised if this occurred a little sooner. Bonnie has moved little since the last advisory, with the 3 most recent aircraft fixes all within about 5 miles of each other. The cyclone should begin to move north-northwestward and then northward during the next 12-24 hours between a mid/upper-level trough advancing into the eastern United States and a building ridge near and west of Bermuda. After that time, a weakening Bonnie should move slowly northeastward through the end of the period. The new NHC forecast is near the previous one through 12 hours. After that time the official NHC track has been adjusted to the right of the previous one but lies left of and a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF consensus out of respect for continuity. Note that the the shift in the guidance envelope at 24 hours and beyond is largely due to the fact that Bonnie hasn't moved much this evening. The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which is already occurring over portions of coastal South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 31.8N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/0000Z 34.3N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 35.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan |
