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| #858277 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 29.May.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Most of the deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone became separated from the center overnight, and Bonnie weakened to a tropical depression before reaching the south-central coast of South Carolina. Aircraft data indicate that Bonnie made landfall just east of Charleston near the Isle of Palms around 1230 UTC. The tropical cyclone has continued to move faster than expected, with an initial motion estimate of 360/8 kt. The global models insist that a reduction in forward speed will occur today while the cyclone moves around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. As a result of the faster forward motion, the NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward accordingly, and now shows the center moving farther inland during the next day or so. After 48 hours, a slightly faster northeastward motion is expected to begin. The updated NHC track is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus. Bonnie is forecast to weaken some during the next 12 to 24 hours, but little change in strength is expected after that time since a portion of the circulation could be over water. A track farther inland than anticipated would result in a faster rate of weakening, and Bonnie would become a remnant low sooner in this scenario. The primary impact from Bonnie will continue to be locally heavy rainfall, which is occurring over much of eastern Georgia, and portions of the Carolinas. These rains will gradually spread northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 33.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 33.6N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 34.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 34.1N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 34.1N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 35.3N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 36.5N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 38.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
