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| #858613 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 02.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 Coastal observations, Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Bonnie is a little stronger than on the previous advisory, and the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument on the aircraft has estimated surface winds as high as 39 kt. However, these estimates are uncertain due to rain contamination and bathemetry issues. Based on other data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 050/5. There is little change in the track forecast philosophy since the last advisory. Bonnie continues to move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The track forecast follows the various consensus models, which remain tightly clustered. The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters for the next 12 hours or so while the vertical wind shear is light. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during that time, bringing Bonnie back to a tropical storm. After that, increasing shear and sea surface temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a remnant low, with the system weakening to a trough in the westerlies by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 35.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 35.8N 73.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.3N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 36.5N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 36.5N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 36.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
