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| #858737 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 03.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today, thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation. The maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Given the current lack of deep convection, this intensity estimate may be generous. Since the system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48 hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie is moving along the northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue for the next couple of days. The track model guidance is in general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some acceleration over the next 48 hours. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.9N 69.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.7N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 35.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 34.8N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 34.3N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
