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| #858890 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 05.Jun.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25 to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this afternoon. The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening. Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over the western Atlantic in about 3 days. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion over the north Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
