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| #859001 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 06.Jun.2016) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT COLIN IS STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 87.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings and watches may be required for parts of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 87.4 West. Colin is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area this afternoon or evening, move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United states later on Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the Florida East and Georgia coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area, as well as in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch area on Tuesday. TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
