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| #859123 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 06.Jun.2016) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...COLIN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 83.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Colin will move onshore in the Florida Big Bend area shortly, then move across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia through early Tuesday morning, and move near or over the southeastern coast of the United States Tuesday. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast after Colin moves into the Atlantic on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across western to northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions have likely begun over portions of the warning area along the Atlantic coast of Florida, and these conditions will spread northward and northeastward over the remainder of the warning area overnight and on Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of central and northeast Florida early tonight, and perhaps near coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas overnight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
