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| #8712 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0900Z THU SEP 16 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT 5 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 68.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 68.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 69.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 70.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.3N 74.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.4N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 68.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
