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| #871470 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 02.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day, and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge. This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
