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| #871508 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 03.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and found that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the cloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane. An Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central pressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far no hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening today is the interaction of the circulation with Central America, but nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity before landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening is anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the center of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche. Earl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a strong and persistent high pressure system over the United States. This pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward track over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that the cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the southern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the chances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.8N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.5N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
