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| #871533 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 03.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 87.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued all warnings for the coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located by an an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move inland over Belize within the next few hours, and move over the southern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, and Earl will begin to weaken after it moves inland over Belize on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
